Awesome breakdown, Andrew! Appreciate you explaining how those ESPN projections work. I'm a big Pacers fan, watched most of their games this season, so it was a tough read. Ha!
As I think about where analytics and reality collide... While I think the analytics captured Game I correctly (the one we coughed up), at no point in those other two games did I feel the Pacers have close to a 9 in 10 chance of winning. As the better team, Boston's ability to ramp up their game (which they did) in the minutes that matter is a real outcome that's hard to nail in a make-miss model. All that aside... that the Knicks had a 0% chance of winning the Pacers-Celtics series is the only statistic that mattered! :)
I think that's a really valid point! In reality, the models that determine the probability of makes/misses are where the real inaccuracies with this approach lie. If you can improve those, you improve underlying results.
I was and still am surprised by the 90% chance of winning in 3 games too. Its still feels suspicious by ESPN.
Awesome breakdown, Andrew! Appreciate you explaining how those ESPN projections work. I'm a big Pacers fan, watched most of their games this season, so it was a tough read. Ha!
As I think about where analytics and reality collide... While I think the analytics captured Game I correctly (the one we coughed up), at no point in those other two games did I feel the Pacers have close to a 9 in 10 chance of winning. As the better team, Boston's ability to ramp up their game (which they did) in the minutes that matter is a real outcome that's hard to nail in a make-miss model. All that aside... that the Knicks had a 0% chance of winning the Pacers-Celtics series is the only statistic that mattered! :)
I think that's a really valid point! In reality, the models that determine the probability of makes/misses are where the real inaccuracies with this approach lie. If you can improve those, you improve underlying results.
I was and still am surprised by the 90% chance of winning in 3 games too. Its still feels suspicious by ESPN.